The Phoenix

The Herald's premature evaluation--updated!

In today's Boston Herald cover story, reporter Hillary Chabot writes:

Barack Obama’s divided and poorly timed convention has given him no boost in tracking polls, leaving him in danger of trailing Republican John McCain by the time the GOP conclave ends next week....
Polls showing McCain holding down Obama in the polls despite the nationally televised convention, and no bounce from Obama’s long-awaited running mate pick - an event that pollsters say ususally draws at least a two-percentage point gain....
Obama and McCain are neck and neck in the national polls despite three days of glowing speeches about the Illinois senator during a highly publicized convention viewed by 22 million people. [emph. added]

Okay: if you're an Obama supporter, the lack of a bounce from the Biden pick is worrisome. But intentionally or not, Chabot is being a bit slippery here.

Exhibit A for her claim that Obama and McCain are neck and neck "despite three days of glowing speeches" about Obama is the latest Gallup Daily poll, which shows Obama with a 45-44 lead among registered voters. The problem with linking this claim and this poll is that the Gallup survey comprises Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday--in other words, two days of the DNC, not three. [Update: A DQM reader notes that, unless Gallup was calling people after 11 p.m. on Tuesday, those numbers only reflect one day of the convention. Even worse.] Chabot also cites the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll, which was released yesterday at 9:30 AM--i.e., also after two days of the convention.

This gets us to the bigger problem with Chabot's story. She's basically calling the convention a bust at its halfway point--and before Obama, who's previously proven himself to be a pretty good orator, has actually addressed the gathering. (Chabot acknowledges the fact that Obama hasn't yet spoken, but doesn't let it get in the way of her analysis.)

The usefulness (or lack thereof) of the DNC to Obama is a perfectly reasonable subject. But this strikes me as a botched job.

Published Aug 28 2008, 08:21 AM by Adam Reilly

Joel said:

Obviously today's "OBUMMER" front page, with Chabot's story, was just the Herald's way of shaking off the horrible feeling they had after being nice to Ted K on Tuesday. You and others noted the Herald seemed to have gone a little squishy on Ted; it's in the Herald's DNA to push back immediately in that situation.

August 28, 2008 10:45 AM
Joel said:

And PS, am I missing something? What the hell does DJ Spock have to do with that item?

August 28, 2008 10:46 AM
Medfordjared said:

If you look at the Gallop tracking, you'll see that Obama consistently under performs over weekends, then gains midweek. Someone noted that this reflects that younger Obamma voters tend not to be home on weekends and are more available weeknights.

In addition, the construct of 'likely voters' is used to define the tracked voters. This demographic is defined as people who voted in the last two presidential elections. There are huge numbers of new voters that will be voting Obama. It would be interesting to see a poll taking into account 'registered voters'.

Also note that as of yesterday, Gallup noted that Obama retook the lead from McCain and that "A better night for Obama in Gallup's Tuesday tracking interviews, however, suggests that a convention bounce could develop."

August 28, 2008 10:50 AM
Adam said:

The Spock pic was supposed to conjure up the phrase "Highly illogical." (The DJ stuff is superfluous.)

August 28, 2008 11:06 AM