Master meta-poller Nate Silver on Question 1

Stats analyst Nate Silver, who became famous for his blindingly accurate meta-polling during the 2008 presidential campaign, has tackled Question 1.

I have blogged before about the complacency and backwardness of the No On 1 campaign strategy: "Will Maine discriminate? Only if cowards and defensive-minded people hedge and engage with this kind of idiocy. And then, it will be their own damn fault."

I am pleased to find Silver with me on this point. Specifically, while noting that the No On 1 campaign is slightly ahead at the moment, it is "clearly a winnable campaign for conservatives and a losable one for liberals, especially if the sort of complacency sets in that we saw in California."

The same kinds of strategies that failed with Prop 8 will fail here - especially since the repeal-equality campaign has hired the conservatives who won that effort.

It's time for the No On 1 campaign to stand up and declare what it's for, and stop meandering about debating religion and education.

Here's the new message: This is a civil-rights issue. It is a human-rights issue. Maine won't discriminate. Maine won't repeal equality.

The volunteers get it - the ones making the calls and talking it up all over the state. They're not doing it because gay marriage will or won't be taught in schools, or because religious leaders will or won't be free to choose what ceremonies they do. They're spending all that time - and all that money - because this is a basic rights-and-equality issue.

It's time for the No On 1 leaders to get with the program, or prepare to lose in November.