Suffolk University is releasing a poll on the Massachusetts US Senate race tomorrow, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) just released its own poll, taken May 8-10 of likely voters, showing the race tied, 46%-46%.

The Elizabeth Warren camp tends to think that Suffolk skews to Scott Brown -- they had him ahead 49%-40% in February.

There are a couple of interesting primaries today for those who share my interest in women GOP candidates.

But first, let me catch up, because I didn't update last week on this. There was a major plus for those interested in seeing more Republican women in high elected office -- in a surprise, Deb Fischer won the GOP Senate primary in Nebraska, likely meaning that she will become a US Senator.

With one week to complete the ballot-qualification process, a total of 54 candidates had secured ballot positions in the 40 state senate districts as of yesterday afternoon. That includes 30 incumbents; another 7 incumbents who are running for re-election (as far as I know) have not yet gotten around to turning in their signatures: Robert Hedlund, Brian Joyce, Michael Knapik, Mark Montigny, Therese Murray, Bruce Tarr, and James Timilty.

A couple of Boston questions! "R.O.B." asks:

After Mayor Menino, who are the most powerful figures in city government?

This strikes me as one of those mind-bender Zen koans. There is no power in the city of Boston that is not ultimately derived from Mayor Menino, is there?

I'll say this, though: aside from Menino, there may be nobody with more influence on the city's future than Kairos Shen of the Boston Redevelopment Authority.

"Beacon Hill Gossip," a real troublemaker, asks:

Of Beacon Hills current crop of Legislators, which do you think have either overstayed their welcome, hit the glass ceiling, or are just plain ineffective, and should take a hint and look for a new career?

Well, let's start with my stated opinion -- and I'm serious about this -- that we should shut down the house of representatives and send them all home.

"John Y." brings us back to local races:

How do see the 3rd Middlesex State Senate race shaping up? Any favorite in the crowded field?

It's a great, great field of candidates isn't it? This is the open seat where Democrat Susan Fargo is retiring. If I had to guess, I think Mara Dolan wins it. She has some good endorsements (including Congressman Capuano) and should benefit from so many men splitting votes.

"Jack" goes back to the US Senate race:

Elizabeth Warren is meeting with Bay Staters, face to face, in small and large groups, at a steady pace. Contrast that with Coakley, who didn't have the time or inclination to present herself. Also, Brown is tied up in Washington, for now. Further, Brown is known mostly by public persona, rather than direct contact with residents/voters.

"Bellavita" asks:

It's nice of our President to 'come out' about his personal support of homosexuals. Forgive me, but as President, shouldn't he have done something to help that along at this point? What do you predict he will actually DO, if anything, to support individual rights further? THANKS!

Well, I recommend you take a look at my new feature in this week's Boston Phoenix on this topic.

"Thecosmicamerican" asks:

I've heard many people discuss the absence of MA elected officials ready to take the next step into the Governorship, US Senate, etc. Who on Beacon Hill now do you see as future Statewide (nationwide?) figures?

I'd look off of Beacon Hill for upcoming talent, but on the hill (not counting those already in statewide office) I think you can see Katherine Clark, maybe Ben Downing.

Turning from the high-profile to the obscure, "EliasNugator" asks:

Who is the "front runner" in the 24th Middlesex Democratic Primary for State Rep? How does that General Election shape up?

That's the open seat in Arlington/Belmont/Cambridge, previously held by William Brownsberger, who won a special election to become state senator.

Off we go on a fabulous Ask Me Anything Day! First up, "jessiekb" asks:

Will delegates to the Democratic state convention give Marisa Defranco the 15% she needs in order to appear on the primary ballot in September?

Yes. Just about every Democratic insider I've asked thinks so, and I get no sense that top party and Elizabeth Warren people are willing to make the kind of effort it would take to prevent it -- if they can.

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take a multi-pronged look at what I think is clearly now a turning point on same-sex marriage, in light of President Obama's declaration of support last week.

The feature is really conceived as several ways of looking at where we are heading, politically, legally, culturally, in partisan terms, and so on, with my overall argument being that, while we don't know exactly where things will end or how long it will take, we really can now feel, with considerable confidence, that we know the general direction things are headed.