bestnom1000x50
  • March 23, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Southpaw" asks:

    Who do you see as the most likely dem candidate(s) to run for governor when Patrick leaves?

    I'm going to do you even better. Prepare your email-forwarding fingers, because I'm going to give you my Initial 2014 Rankings!!!

    These are, in order of likelihood, the people I consider most likely to be elected in November 2014 as Governor of the great and blessed Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

    Read More

  • February 03, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    "RMC Strategies" asks via Twitter:

    Handicap a Tim Murray v. Steve Grossman primary?

    I'll assume we're talking about governor 2014, although I'd lay odds that they won't both be in that race. But let's assume that it's the two of them head-to-head. Let's also assume that nothing substantially worse comes out about Lil' Timmy's recent escapades and whatnot.

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  • February 03, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Stephen" asks:

    Kim Driscoll....Governor?

    I swear I just asked someone yesterday this exact question. The individual I asked agreed that the Salem mayor would be a great candidate, but thinks Driscoll is looking at running for lieutenant governor. That's probably the smart move. Of course, Driscoll has still not disproven my suggestions that she may be a witch.

    Read More

  • March 18, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Elias Nugator" is awake and alert enough post-Evacuation Day to start us off with a good one:

    Granted we've only just exited a gubernatorial race and there is both a Presidential and a Senatorial race to beguile us next year... Nonetheless given that Deval Patrick has declined to run for a third term is there anyone out there making gubernatorial noises for 2014? I mean other than the annual no-shows like Ralph Martin or Andy Card.

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  • January 21, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Certifiable Political Junkie" asks:

    One, thinking ahead to 2014, does anyone come to mind as a plausible GOP candidate for Governor? Second, do you foresee any of the congressional incumbents retiring in order to avoid the redistricting bloodbath and a potential primary?

    On the first question: Sure -- Charlie Baker, for one.

    Read More

  • November 08, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Here, finally, is my take on the Charlie Baker campaign. You can take all the particular criticisms of the campaign strategy; all the dissections of Baker's persona; all the praise of Deval Patrick's get-out-the-vote operation... there's still an overarching reason that Baker lost badly in a race where he should have won easily.

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  • November 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Four years ago, Deval Patrick went in front of a gathering of editors and publishers and told them that they had all totally missed the story of his campaign, which was his incredible grassroots operation. True as it may have been, it's probably not too smart to start off your gubernatorial relationship with the media by telling them that you know how to do their jobs better than they do.

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  • November 01, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Here's an intriguing thing to watch election night: when the dust settles and everyone's sworn in, will more Americans be living under Democratic or Republican Governors?

    Most recent popuilation estimates say there are roughly 306 million Americans living in the 50 states (not including DC, which has no governor, and the territories, which I'm not including).

    Read More

  • October 29, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Two weeks ago, after the last round of polls on the Massachusetts Governor race began, I wrote:

    ...pretty much nobody seriously thinks that anybody is ahead by a comfortable margin in the Massachusetts governor's race.

    Second: Every independent poll since Labor Day -- check that, since June -- has shown Deval Patrick leading with margins ranging from 1 percentage point (Globe/UNH) to 7, as in the Suffolk University poll that came out earlier this week.

    Read More

  • October 28, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    With rumors of a Suffolk University poll on the way, the Charlie Baker campaign has released another memo on its own magical, unseen internal polling. Now, I don't know where this race really stands, but this memo reeks of a campaign in its death throes.

    The 'topline' numbers, for the record, are a 40%-40% tie, with Cahill at 10%, Stein 3%, and 6% undecided.

    Read More

  • October 28, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    OK, let's start here: Charlie Baker is absolutely correct that Deval Patrick has refused to talk seriously about how he'll deal with the looming FY2012 budget gap, likely to be in the range of $2 billion. And Patrick deserves to be called out for that.

    And, if Patrick's going to leave that question unanswered, it's political fair game for Baker to lob speculative grenades to scare voters about what Patrick might do.

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  • October 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Monday night, during the final televised debate, Governor Deval Patrick used a discussion about unemployment to talk about a "job club" he visited with that meets in a Quincy IHOP. This was not new; it has become a standard part of his campaign rhetoric in the past month -- he even spoke at length about that Quincy group in his speech at the big GOTV rally with President Barack Obama.

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  • October 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    This is the new front image at www.charliebaker2010.com. Ummm.... where'd the mole go?

  • October 25, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    1) Candidates would have to ring in to answer, like on Jeopardy.

    2) The round where candidates question each other would be "Truth or Dare."

    3) Challenge flags.

    4) In one round, candidates would have to respond in a film or theater style called out by the audience.

    5) Vuvuzelas!.

    6) All questions in "speed round" would be about "Real Housewives."

    Read More

  • October 24, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    For a long time now, whenever I'm asked who I think will win the Massachusetts Governor's race, I've said the same thing: I think Deval Patrick -- to my surprise -- has a slight advantage, with perhaps a 55% chance of winning.

    Today, with the new Boston Globe/UNH poll, I am -- to my further surprise -- recalbrating that analysis.

    Read More

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