Another Primary Day

Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico hold their primaries today. The big offices up for grabs are governor in Alabama and New Mexico. In Alabama, Artur Davis seems likely to become the first black Democratic nominee for governor of that state since reconstruction, while three conservatives -- including the notorious former judge Roy Moore -- battle on the Republican side. Democrats in New Mexico will nominate current LG Diane Denish, while Republicans appear to be down to DA Susana Martinez and businessman Allen Weh. Martinez is leading in the late polls, so that could be an all-female finale, and one of the GOP's few opportunities to elect a woman (although most pundits suspect Denish holds an edge in November).

The only Senate race is not much of a race, with Richard Shelby presumably coasting to re-election in Alabama.

The US House races hold a little more interest. In Alabama's 5th District, Democrat-turned-Republican Parker Griffith is in a tough primary. The Mississippi 1st and New Mexico 2nd are both considered very possible GOP pick-ups this year, and it looks like Alan Nunnelly and former US Rep. Steve Pearce will win those respective Republican primaries -- with Nunnelly knocking out Angela McGlowan, the latest failed Republican woman candidate in a winnable district.

We probably will, however, get the first female GOP primary winner in a district rated less than "Likely Democratic." That's Martha Roby, in the Alabama 2nd District. Roby was once considered (by me, anyway) the most likely Republican woman to get elected to Congress this year, but then polling showed Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright to be far less vulnerable than originally suspected. Most analysts have the race as "Lean Democratic."

The New Mexico 1st is also a "Lean Democratic," with Jonathon Barela unopposed in the GOP primary, to take on incumbent Martin Heinrich.

Next Tuesday is a much bigger deal, with 10 states holding primaries -- including California -- and the Arkansas run-offs, including the big Democratic Lincoln-Halter Senate showdown. More on those at a later date.

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