Two problems for the national GOP that I've been writing about for
several years are in evidence in a special election going on in upstate
New York, for an open Congressional seat long held by a moderate
Republican. The state GOP powers there maneuvered to nominate Dierdre
"Dede" Scozzafava -- or, as Michelle Malkin calls her, "radical leftist
Dede Scozzafava." The Conservative Party, which most often puts the GOP
nominee on its own line on New York ballots, rejected Scozzafava and
chose the rejected conservative candidate, Doug Hoffman. Hoffman, a
CPA, is essentially a nobody Tea Party guy, but has become a national
cause celebre for conservatives -- which has effectively killed
Scozzafava's chances, and will probably hand the seat to the Democrat.
obvious issue has gotten a lot of attention: that the Republican voting
base is now dominated by stalwart movement conservatives who are
shunning electable candidates in favor of unelectable ideological
So I'll concentrate on the other issue: the continuing extinction of the species known as the elected Republican woman.
This New York race was a great chance to add one, and now that chance is gone.
I've been writing for at least three years, the GOP is experiencing a
remarkable decline in female officeholders. I won't get into my
theories about the causes here. But, I'm very interested to see what
happens in the 2010 election cycle -- which, unlike '06 and '08, should
provide considerable opportunities for new Republican candidates. That
should mean gains in women for the party, if it's still possible for
that to happen.
A year away, the signs are not good.
Let's start with governors -- a huge opportunity, with dozens of elections, the majority of which are for open seats.
there are only three women Republican governors -- all of which might
be gone after the 2010 elections. Lingle of Hawaii is term-limited out;
Brewer in Arizona (a fluky inheritor of the seat) is wildly unpopular;
and Rell of Connecticut is rumored to be retiring.
(There are also only three women Democratic governors; there were five before the Obama administration grabbed a couple.)
far, I know of Republican women running or considered likely to run in
only nine states. The most likely to win is Mary Fallin of Oklahoma,
although that's no sure thing. Kay Bailey Hutchison is taking on
Republican incumbent Rick Perry in a Texas intraparty clash of titans,
with the outcome iffy. Meg Whitman is the frontrunner for the
nomination in California, but it's already tough sledding for her, and
her odds of winning the general seem slim. Kay Ivey has a legitimate
shot in Alabama against a half-dozen other Republicans. Two women are
running in New Mexico, but are not favored. In South Carolina, Nikki
Haley is a longshot favorite of the conservative/libertarian
blogosphere. Karen Handel is a similar story in Georgia. Pat Anderson,
a Ron Paul type, is a longshot for the Minnesota nomination. Sharon
Ullman, a sometime Democrat, was unlikely to get the GOP bid in Idaho
even if incumbent Butch Otter didn't run again, which he is.
course, there's still time for others to jump in. For instance, former
congresswoman Heather Wilson is reportedly considering it in New
Mexico. She'll be considered a frontrunner, but then again she was
considered a frontrunner in the 2008 Senate race, and GOP primary
voters picked ultraconservative Steve Pearce instead.