Chang-Diaz Claims Lead

The Sonia Chang-Diaz campaign has released an internal poll showing her leading incumbent Dianne Wilkerson, 47% to 30%, with 23% undecided.

Those numbers are almost exactly the same as the response on whether Wilkerson deserves re-election: 47% say time for someone new, 25% say she deserves re-election.

So, while the numbers are obviously great news for Chang-Diaz, it still suggests to me that Wilkerson has a path to victory: that is to say, the election is purely a referendum on Wilkerson, and less than half the electorate are convinced she needs to go.

The poll shows Chang-Diaz with a remarkable favorability rating -- 58% favorable, 4.5% unfavorable -- which may suggest that she is vulnerable to losing some of her support as Wilkerson begins campaigning.

Also, I don't know what assumptions the poll is making about turnout, which will be a big factor in the election.

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