Your Q, My A

In response to my call for questions, "Hoss" writes:

Some Boston politics questions:

- Does Sonia Chang-Diaz have a chance to beat Dianne Wilkerson?
- Will Ralph Martin run for Mayor?
- Will Mayor Menino run for reelection in 2009?

Basic questions, but probably complicated answers.
My short, best-guess answers are: No, No, and Yes.
Chang-Diaz is an impressive candidate. But Wilkerson has thus far followed through on her end of the bargain she made with her constituents in '06: send me back, and I'll stop screwing up. Wilkerson's strong defense of her constituents' interests in auto-insurance reform and other issues helps her, as does the continuing progress on CORI reform legislation. But perhaps most importantly, the gay-rights community will continued to stand by Wilkerson, who was a crucial ally in killing the amendment ballot-initiative last year.
Now, if Wilkerson was to not run, we could have a terrific race between Chang-Diaz and Mike Ross.
As for Martin, his latest campaign-finance report confirms that he commissioned a poll from Kiley & Co.; he sure hasn't been acting much as though the results gave him great confidence. I suspect he'll only run if Menino doesn't. And I see no reason to think that Menino won't run -- barring health-related or other reasons arising over the coming year or so.
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