McCain Has Only One Scenario to Victory and the Odds Aren't Good

With Barack Obama continuing to hold about a five-point lead in most public opinion polls, the only road to victory for John McCain is that all the undecideds break his way. That's the argument Dick Morris is making, for example. He says that Obama is virtually assumed to be the victor now -- and has thus been "incumbentized" -- which means there could well be a shift against him in the final hours.

For that to happen, our view is that there will have to be a substantial "Bradley" effect -- where large numbers of white voters have been afraid to tell pollsters that they won't vote for Obama -- out of fear of being thought racist.

We've obviously never had a black candidate before so we don't know how this will all play out. But McCain essentially now needs to draw to an inside straight to win.