On Thursday,
we filed our Super Tuesday Tote Board preview in the Phoenix. Since publication, here's how things have changed:
REPUBLICANS
McCain appears like he may salt away the nomination on Tuesday. Not only does he continue to hold his lead in the northeast but he appears to be doing very well in the South -- where there are five primaries -- and could win a majority of them.
If that happens, all he really has to do is win one of the midwest-west three -- California, Missouri, and Illinois -- to be virtually unassailable. Right now, he appears poised to do that.
DEMOCRATS Obama appears to be surging. On Thursday, we had Clinton leading in 11 of the primary states (with 4 of those leaning); Obama leading in four (with one leaning). Since publication, Delaware, Missouri, and New Jersey have moved into the leaning category as well -- meaning Clinton is being challenged by Obama strongly in 11 primary states of the 15 up for grabs on Tuesday. (Tennessee now appears to be secure for Clinton and Utah, according to one poll, looks good for Obama.)
Equally significant, Obama appears to be doing well in the major caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota.
The bottom line is that if Obama can win six primaries of the 15 held on Tuesday, he is in decent shape to challenge Clinton the rest of the way -- though it would help greatly if California were among them.
Here's the current prognosis:
CLINTON: Arizona (leaning), Arkansas, California
(leaning), Delaware (leaning), Massachusetts (leaning), Missouri (leaning), New Jersey (leaning), New
York, Oklahoma, Tennessee
OBAMA: Alabama (leaning), Connecticut (leaning), Georgia, Illinois, Utah (leaning)
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