What's At Stake in Michigan

    There's quite a lot at stake in Michigan in the GOP race today.
    For Mike Huckabee, he's not expected to win, so a strong showing will be an unexpected plus, giving him momentum into virtual must-win South Carolina on Saturday, and showing that he has strength up north that will benefit him on Super Tuesday.
    For Mitt Romney, he faces yet another "must-win situation" -- now, ahem, his third. What keeps giving Romney extra lives, of course, is that he has money, an initial group of first states where he has some built-in advantages (in NH it was geographic proximity, in Michigan it's family name), and the fact that the conservative establishment doesn't like either John McCain or Huckabee. That establishment can help keep Romney alive for awhile but the ultimate problem is that Romney's negatives among the electorate are so high that it's hard to see how he could emerge with the nomination and even harder to see how he could win a general. Still  . . .
    For John McCain, he risks losing all the momentum he gained in NH should he stumble today and yet again on Saturday in South Carolina. He doesn't have to win tonight, especially if it's Huckabee who emerges as the winner, but a revitalized Romney would hurt him Saturday in South Carolina.
    Fred Thompson is hoping that the results tonight are so muddled they give no one momentum so he can emerge on Saturday in SC. That's unlikely.
    The media may have buried Rudy Giuliani but his late state strategy is still on course. He has to hope, however, that McCain stumbles this week and that Romney doesn't do that well either.