The last Des Moines Register Poll
-- which Iowans, of course, pay far more attention to than other polls
-- shows these numbers for the Democrats: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%. And, on
the GOP side: Huckabee 32%, Romney 26%, McCain 13%.
In
contrast, a new Insider Advantage poll in Iowa yesterday showed Clinton with 30%, Edwards with 29%, and Obama
with 22%. When using a reallocation formula for the caucuses
taking into
account second choices, Edwards won with 41%, followed by Clinton at
34%, and Obama at 25%.
So, the trend in the polls is that there is no
trend because collectively they are all over the lot -- no surprise given the
difficulty of polling this caucus. Still, given recent polls that had
indicated that Obama or Huckabee
might be slipping -- and a Des Moines Register confirmation of that
trend would have
created its own sense of momentum in the state -- both those camps must
be breathing sighs of relief tonight.
Both races still look up for grabs, impossible to predict.