We’ve received some mail
questioning our odds given the apparent surge by Barack Obama. So,
here’s a brief explanation.
First, odds are not predictions; they’re probabilities.
Second, it’s our view that Hillary is still the probable nominee.
That’s because for Obama to truly get his campaign launched, it’s
generally agreed that he has to win two of the first three contests in
Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. (For purposes of argument,
we’ll treat Iowa as a victory if he finishes second but Hillary
finishes a distant third.)
In contrast, Hillary
can withstand a lesser showing in January – even losing all three. That
isn’t to say she’d be in great shape heading into February but she’d
still be viable.
So where do we stand now? Take Iowa.
According
to the venerable Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com, “[I]f we take into
account both the closeness of the Democratic race and all sources of
potential poll error, we really have no idea who is truly "ahead" at
this point in the race.” In New Hampshire,
that’s pretty much the case too. The polling may be more accurate but
given the closeness of the race and the effect the Iowa results are
likely to have on New Hampshire only five days later, we really have no
idea how the candidates will fare there either.
So, that’s where things stand. Obama has a much tougher road than
Clinton in January because he still trails significantly in the
national numbers and needs to do better accordingly as the race begins.
But any of the three major contenders could still win.
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