The Latest Zogby Poll on Dem Second-Choicers in Iowa and the Mood of the Electorate
Zogby is out with some new numbers in Iowa and NH with nothing terribly surprising.
But there are two elements in the poll that bear scrutiny. First, on
the issue of which Democrat might benefit in Iowa the most from the 15%
cutoff rule that will cause voters not supporting one of the "Big 3" to
support someone else, Zogby writes:
"Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred
as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable
under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground
among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in
choosing a nominee – she wins the lion’s share of support among those
who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who
would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson."
And on the mood of the electorate, he writes:
"Both Democrats and Republicans said they were angry
with the political system in America, meaning candidates on both sides
of the aisle will be making their last–minute pitches to a
less–than–welcoming electorate.
Democrats
are more incensed than Republicans, the Zogby poll shows. Nearly four
in five (78%) of likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa and 81% of
likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire said they were angry with the
political system. . . . .
Among Republicans, 67% of likely Iowa
caucus–goers and 68% of likely New Hampshire primary voters said they
are angry with the political system."
What does it all mean? Clinton may
have a bit of hidden strength in Iowa the pure preference polls may not
reflect. And, in an atmosphere in which voters are angry, outsiders do
well -- which should help Huckabee and McCain in the long run -- and maybe even Obama as well.
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