Instant Analysis of Iowa Straw Poll Results -- Romney Wins As Expected and Huckabee is a Surprise Second

    According to unofficial results reported on Marc Ambinder's Atlantic blog, Mitt Romney has won the Iowa GOP straw poll with 31.5% of the vote, with Mike Huckabee, as we predicted, surprising the experts with a second place showing at 18%.
    Sam Brownback was third with 15% and Tom Tancredo followed with 14%.
    Turnout was off by about a third from 1999, in part, no doubt, because Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson did not participate. Still, Romney won, about as expected, so his momentum continues -- though the press will likely interpret the low turnout as a reflection of lack of interest in the field as a whole. However, the story for the next few weeks will be Huckabee, who will now be given a chance to extend his campaign -- especially given Fred Thompson's rather lackadaisical entry into the race.
    For the other candidates who participated in the straw poll, the end is near. Tommy Thompson, who finished sixth, will be expected to withdraw within days. Ditto for Duncan Hunter. Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, and Sam Brownback may try to keep their campaigns going, but Paul and Tancredo could find future GOP debates won't include them and their campaigns are effectively finished. At some point, Brownback will realize that discretion is the better part of valor and will likely end his run long before the first vote is cast.
    In the long run, as bogus as a straw poll like this may be, it will have the beneficial effect for the Republicans of limiting the field and the debates this fall to the serious candidates. So the field at some point in the near future should be Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. Not to mention one last candidate waiting in the wings, who will look at the low turnout and relative lack of enthusiasm for the field as a whole and decide to answer the call -- Newt Gingrich.