The biggest non-story of the
campaign so far is unfolding across the country as the candidates race
to impress the pundits with how much money they raised in the first
quarter. But, as
this story in the Politico
indicates, the result is likely to be something of a stand-off:
Virtually all the major candidates are going to do well -- or at least
well enough to keep their campaigns viable, not only for now but until
the first vote is cast.
Sure, Hillary will
probably out raise everyone on the Democratic side and Mitt Romney will
likely ride his head start to the head of the GOP money parade. And
yes, money talks. But votes and depth of support talk more and those
will be determined by how candidates campaign, perform in debates, and
where they promise to lead the country. The Politico article makes a
good point that all anyone could talk about four years ago was Howard
Dean’s surprise fundraising over the Internet. A lot of good it did him.
The press likes to cover fundraising because it's an easy story to
report (you don't even have to leave the office!); you get to talk to
rich people, and it involves numbers -- which allow reporters to
compare candidates easily. There's only one problem: The numbers that
ultimately count in a campaign are votes, not dollars.
If a candidate can out raise anyone else in the field by 2-1,
that’s a story and an advantage. But that’s unlikely to happen.
Remember our first rule from the first Tote Board column:
Ideas win campaigns.
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