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In the Phoenix: A Pundit Class Flying Blind

In this week's Phoenix, I've got a piece that tackles the public opinion poll in the context of this year's elections. Two points: a lack of public polling left pundits flying blind in the run-up to the primary; and David Cicilline's candidacy raises an interesting question - could there be a gay "Bradley effect?"

The Bradley effect is named after a black candidate for governor of California, Tom Bradley, who was leading in the polls in his fall 1982 race but lost the election. Some analysts argue that poll respondents who backed his white rival may have told interviewers they were undecided or favored Bradley to avoid appearing racist.

If a gay Bradley effect is a reality, it could have consequences not only for the pundit class, but for the candidates themselves: if Loughlin's support is understated at the outset, it'll be hard to get national conservative money and media attention.

Read the piece to see if, indeed, a gay Bradley effect is a worry.

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