On the Caprio Poll

The ProJo has a short piece on the inside pages today on Frank Caprio's gubernatorial campaign releasing results on a single question from a campaign poll: Caprio, according to the campaign, has a 17-point lead on his Democratic rival, Patrick Lynch, among likely Democratic primary voters.

Mike Mikus, Lynch's campaign manager, plays down the results. "At this point," he tells N4N, "head-to-head matchups don't matter. Just ask Senator Coakley or President Hillary Clinton what early polling means."

Still, there is reason for the Lynch camp to be concerned. The poll shows caprio faring well among two key Lynch constituencies: Caprio has a 9-point lead among union members and is even with liberals. And the poll, combined with another from WPRI-TV that has Caprio faring better against independent Lincoln Chafee than Lynch, should help Caprio in his battle for the support of Democratic power brokers and donors.

Mikus voices confidence that the terrain will shift as the positions of both candidates are further defined and the state focuses more intently on the race. Working people, he says, will be with Lynch in the end.

And there is, it must be said, a certain danger in Caprio releasing the result now. If another poll down the line shows Lynch gaining ground - and this is a near-certainty as the campaign heats up - the story becomes one of the underdog gaining ground.

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