Kennedy's Poll Numbers

The WPRI poll released last night is, undoubtedly, bad news for Representative Patrick Kennedy. The poll found 35 percent of voters statewide giving him good marks on job performance and 62 percent giving him poor marks. And while 35 percent of First Congressional District voters said they would vote for Kennedy, 31 percent said they would consider someone else and 28 percent said they would vote to replace him. This race is shaping up as Kennedy's biggest challenge.

But there a few caveats to consider here. First, Kennedy's job approval ratings have never been great statewide, and he has still managed to cruise to re-election in the past - albeit against candidates of lesser credibility than his Republican challenger this time around, State Representative John J. Loughlin II. Second, the Congressman has always faced a hard-core group of anti-Kennedy partisans amounting to some 30 percent of the electorate.

Third, the job approval ratings in the WPRI poll among First District voters were better than his statewide figures - 42 percent gave him a positive rating and 56 percent a negative rating. And finally, the poll did not ask voters to consider a head-to-head election with Loughlin. Wavering voters, when confronted with an actual choice, may not be so quick to abandon the incumbent. Especially nine months from now, after the Kennedy camp has moved to paint Loughlin as an out-of-touch conservative.