Politico's Election Night benchmarks

See you at the Biltmore.

Signs to look for tonight, via Politico:

FIRST ROUND KNOCKOUT. Eastern Indiana reports at 6 p.m., with polling places in the western part of the state closing an hour later. The networks often start reporting results at 6 — and battleground Indiana should provide an immediate read on the night. Obama and McCain are deadlocked in the polls here — and no Democrat has carried the state since ’64 — so an Obama win would spell trouble for McCain. But a big McCain win here could cast immediate doubt on feel-good Obama polling elsewhere. ....

SIGN MCCAIN IS FEELING THE HEAT. He loses Pennsylvania, (where he trails by 4 points to 14 points) after camping out in the Keystone State for much of the week. A key metric for McCain: Obama’s advantage coming out of Philadelphia. If it’s much more than the 412,000-vote edge enjoyed by John F. Kerry in 2004, McCain’s headed for a loss. (Closing time: 8 p.m.)

SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.).

SIGN MCCAIN IS COOKED. If Obama wins two of them.

SIGN MCCAIN IS TOTALLY TOAST. He loses Georgia (7 p.m.), where he once enjoyed a 20-plus-point lead.

OBAMAPOCALYPSE. Obama is more or less finished if he loses Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida — with the stat wizards at FiveThirtyEight.com giving him only a 9.76 percent chance of victory if he loses the battleground trifecta

REPRIEVE (10-20 LOSSES). If Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), John R. Kuhl (R-N.Y.) and Jon C. Porter (R-Nev.) survive, and if the Republicans can hang onto open seats in Kentucky and Alabama, the GOP will have done better than expected.

SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.