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More on that grim Globe prediction


 

As Dan Kennedy has already noted, Time didn't predict the Globe's demise--and there's reason to question the dire assessment of the actual predictor, Wall Street 24/7's Douglas McIntyre.

Here are a couple more points worth noting about McIntyre's forecast. I emailed him yesterday to ask what methodology he'd used in compiling his list; whether the numbers assigned to various papers actually meant anything (i.e., whether he considers the Philly Daily News, at No. 1, is the most likely to go extinct or online only); and whether the recent valuation of the Globe at $192 million--as opposed to the dubious $20 million valuation cited by McIntyre--might make him rethink his Globe prognosis.

In his response, McIntyre didn't address his methodology at all. He did, however, say that the list isn't in any particular order. And he simply rejected the notion that the higher Globe valuation (first reported by the Boston Business Journal) could be legit.

"The Globe is losing $50 million a year. It is not worth $200 million," McIntyre wrote. "...If NYT could get $200 million for the Globe they would take it. There are not any buyers just as there weren't for the Rocky, Miami Herald, or SF Chronicle. There is reason that no one is making offers. It costs too much to keep the properties open."

The next time someone cites McIntyre's claims, this stuff might be worth mentioning, just to help people decide how seriously to take the list in question.

 

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